Highest temperature in Austin on July 20?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: exactly how hot will Austin get on July 20, 2026? The three main options, 94, 95°F, 96, 97°F, and 98, 99°F, represent different bands of peak afternoon heat. A Yes on 96, 97°F, for example, means the single hottest reading of the entire day lands somewhere in that two-degree window. It's essentially a temperature guessing game for one specific summer day in Texas, measured at the city's main airport weather station. The market settles based on the single highest temperature reading recorded at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport on July 20, 2026, as logged on Weather Underground. Whichever two-degree band contains that peak reading wins. One important detail: the temperature is rounded to whole degrees Fahrenheit, so there's no splitting hairs over decimals. The final answer is locked in once the first data point for July 21 appears, after that, any corrections to the data won't change the outcome. None of the provided news items are relevant to Austin's weather on July 20, 2026, they cover flooding in India and a university donation in Texas. No recent weather forecasts or climate data for Austin were included. The kind of news that would actually matter here: a National Weather Service extended forecast for Austin around mid-July 2026, or a heat advisory for the region. Even in predictable Texas summer heat, a two-degree window is genuinely narrow. The market currently places the most weight on 96, 97°F, but 94, 95°F and 98, 99°F together account for more than 40% of the probability. Daily highs can shift several degrees based on cloud cover, wind direction, or a passing storm system. July 20 is still over a year away, which means no forecast exists yet, the odds right now are based on historical patterns alone, not actual weather predictions.

The odds right now

• 96-97°F42%
• 98-99°F22%
• 94-95°F22%
• 92-93°F6%
• 100-101°F4%
• 102-103°F3%
• 90-91°F1%
• 104°F or higher0%
• 88-89°F0%
• 85°F or below0%
• 86-87°F0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 20, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.