Highest temperature in Beijing on July 21?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 21, 2026, how hot will it get in Beijing? Specifically, it wants you to pick the peak daytime high temperature for that single day, measured in whole degrees Celsius at Beijing's Capital International Airport. The three leading options are 29°C, 30°C, and 31°C, which in Fahrenheit are roughly 84°F, 86°F, and 88°F. Think of it as guessing which notch on a thermometer Beijing hits at its hottest moment that day. The market settles based on the single highest temperature reading logged for July 21, 2026 at Beijing Capital International Airport, pulled from the Weather Underground historical records page for that station. The number used is rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius. Importantly, the market waits until the first data point from July 22 appears before it closes, so any late corrections to the July 21 readings that arrive before then are still counted. After that cutoff, no further revisions are considered. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. The kind of development worth watching closer to the date would be seasonal forecasts or climate outlier alerts for northern China in late July, since those could shift expectations about how unusually hot or cool that specific week might be. Late July in Beijing is reliably hot, but the exact daily peak is genuinely hard to nail down even a year out. A single degree of difference separates the top three options, and that gap can come down to passing clouds, a slight shift in wind direction, or a brief heat surge. Long-range weather forecasting at this precision is not reliable beyond about two weeks. The market spreads its probability fairly evenly across 29, 30, and 31 degrees, which reflects real uncertainty rather than a clear favorite.

The odds right now

• 31°C42%
• 30°C26%
• 32°C19%
• 29°C12%
• 33°C3%
• 28°C2%
• 34°C1%
• 27°C1%
• 35°C or higher0%
• 25°C or below0%
• 26°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 21, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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