Highest temperature in Wellington on July 21?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking a simple weather question: how warm will Wellington, New Zealand get on July 21, 2026? Specifically, it asks which single temperature, in whole degrees Celsius, will be the highest recorded at Wellington International Airport that day. A Yes on 13°C means the day's peak temperature lands exactly at 13°C, not 12°C and not 14°C. Think of it as guessing the top number on a thermometer at the airport by end of day. The market settles based on the highest temperature recorded at Wellington International Airport on July 21, 2026, as shown on the Weather Underground website for that station. The reading is rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius, so a peak of 13.7°C would count as 14°C. The result is locked in once the first data point for July 22 appears on that site. Any corrections published before that cutoff count, but corrections after that point do not. None of the recent headlines provided relate to Wellington's weather or any meteorological event that would affect this market. There is no relevant news to point to here. The kind of update that would matter is a specific weather forecast for Wellington around July 21, 2026, especially any outlook discussing an approaching cold front, a warm northerly wind, or unusual winter conditions for that week. July is mid-winter in Wellington, and the market is already fairly concentrated: the two leading options, 12°C and 13°C, together account for about 90% of the odds, with 14°C at just 9%. The main uncertainty is that Wellington's weather is genuinely changeable. A strong northerly wind can push temperatures several degrees above a typical winter day, while a southerly blast can keep them unusually low. A single day's peak is sensitive to timing, cloud cover, and wind direction, all of which are hard to pin down more than a day or two in advance.

The odds right now

• 12°C76%
• 13°C19%
• 11°C7%
• 14°C0%
• 7°C or below0%
• 8°C0%
• 9°C0%
• 10°C0%
• 15°C0%
• 16°C0%
• 17°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 21, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.