Highest temperature in Seoul on July 21?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 21, 2026, what will the hottest temperature of the day be in the Seoul area, measured in whole degrees Celsius? The three options are 27°C (about 81°F), 28°C (about 82°F), and 29°C (about 84°F). A 'Yes' on any one of those means the thermometer peaked at exactly that number on that day. It is worth noting that the temperature is measured at Incheon International Airport, which sits on the coast just west of central Seoul, and can read a degree or two cooler than the city center. The market settles based on the single highest temperature reading logged at the Incheon Airport weather station on July 21, 2026, as shown on Weather Underground. The number is rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius, so 27.8°C would count as 28°C. The result is locked in once the first data point for July 22 appears on that page. Any corrections made before that cutoff count; corrections made after do not. If the actual high falls outside the listed options, for example at 26°C or 30°C, the market would resolve to whichever bracket the organizers designate for that range. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. Because the event is over a year away, the development most worth watching closer to the date would be extended weather forecasts for the Seoul region in mid-to-late July 2026, as well as any reporting on seasonal heat patterns or unusual climate conditions that summer. A full year of atmosphere stands between now and July 21, 2026, which makes precise temperature forecasting genuinely impossible at this stage. Even in the final week before the date, a single cloud system or shift in wind direction can swing the daily high by two or three degrees. The three options span only a 3-degree range, so the margin for error is very tight. The market currently spreads probability fairly evenly across 27°C and 28°C, reflecting that honest uncertainty rather than any strong signal.

The odds right now

• 27°C62%
• 28°C27%
• 29°C11%
• 30°C1%
• 31°C or higher1%
• 21°C or below0%
• 22°C0%
• 23°C0%
• 24°C0%
• 25°C0%
• 26°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 21, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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