Highest temperature in Madrid on July 21?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 21, 2026, what will the hottest part of the day feel like at Madrid's main airport? The three options represent narrow temperature bands: 37°C is about 99°F, 38°C is about 100°F, and 39°C is about 102°F. A Yes on 38°C means the day's peak reading lands exactly at 38°C, not 37, not 39. It is a very precise guess about a single summer day in one of Europe's hottest capital cities. The market settles based on one specific number: the highest temperature recorded on July 21, 2026 at the Barajas Airport weather station, as reported by Weather Underground. Whichever temperature band contains that number wins. The reading is in whole degrees only, so 38.4°C and 38.9°C both count as 38°C. The result is locked in once the first data point from July 22 appears on the site. Any corrections published before that cutoff count; corrections after do not. No recent news relevant to Madrid's July 21 weather was provided. The only headline available is about Indian politics, which has no connection to this market. What would actually matter here is seasonal weather forecasts for Spain in late July, or signals of an unusual heat wave or cool Atlantic pattern developing in the weeks before the date. Weather is genuinely hard to predict more than a few days out, and this date is still in the future. Even on the day itself, a single degree of difference can come down to cloud cover, wind direction, or afternoon timing. The market currently leans toward 38°C at 53%, but 37°C and 39°C together account for nearly half the probability. Late July in Madrid regularly hits this range, so the contest between these three neighboring bands is a real one.

The odds right now

• 38°C49%
• 37°C45%
• 39°C6%
• 36°C2%
• 35°C1%
• 40°C1%
• 34°C or below0%
• 41°C0%
• 42°C0%
• 43°C0%
• 44°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 21, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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