Highest temperature in London on July 21?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will London get on July 21, 2026? Specifically, it wants to know the single highest temperature recorded that day at London City Airport, rounded to a whole number in Celsius. Think of it as picking the peak afternoon temperature on that one day. A result of 25°C means a warm but typical July day, around 77°F. Higher options like 26°C or above mean a notably hot day, while 24°C or lower means a cooler, more overcast summer day. The market settles based on the highest temperature logged at London City Airport (station code EGLC) on July 21, 2026, as reported by Weather Underground. Whatever the peak reading is that day, rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius, determines the winning outcome. One small but important detail: the result is locked in only after the first data point from July 22 appears on the site. Until that moment, any corrections to the July 21 data can still count. The two news items provided are not related to London weather, so there is no relevant recent news to point to here. What would actually matter to watch as the date approaches: medium-range weather forecasts for the UK in mid-to-late July 2026, and whether any heat patterns or Atlantic weather systems are being flagged by forecasters like the UK Met Office. Weather more than a few days out is genuinely hard to pin down, and July 21, 2026 is still roughly a year away, which means no forecast can meaningfully help right now. Even in summer, London's daily highs can swing several degrees depending on wind direction, cloud cover, and whether a continental heat plume pushes in from Europe. The market currently splits probability across 24°C, 25°C, and 26°C fairly broadly, reflecting that real spread of outcomes rather than a clear favorite.

The odds right now

• 25°C32%
• 24°C27%
• 26°C21%
• 23°C17%
• 22°C3%
• 27°C1%
• 21°C1%
• 28°C0%
• 29°C or higher0%
• 20°C0%
• 19°C or below0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 21, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.