Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on July 20?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: how warm will Buenos Aires get on July 20, 2026? Specifically, it wants to know the single highest temperature reached that day at the Ezeiza international airport weather station, and which bucket that number falls into: 12°C, 13°C, or 14°C. Those are cool winter temperatures, roughly equivalent to 54, 57°F. July is the middle of winter in Buenos Aires, so a high of 13°C (about 55°F) on a given day is completely normal for that time of year. The market settles on whichever temperature bucket matches the peak reading recorded at Minister Pistarini International Airport on July 20, 2026, as shown on Weather Underground's history page for that station. The number is rounded to a whole degree Celsius, no decimals. The market waits until the first data point for July 21 appears before it officially closes, so very late-day temperature updates on the 20th can still count. After that cut-off, no revisions are accepted. The only recent news provided is about flooding in the Rajouri region of India, completely unrelated to Buenos Aires weather. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. The kind of update that would actually matter is a short-range weather forecast for the Buenos Aires area in late July, or a notable shift in regional weather patterns like an unusual cold front or warm spell. Even for a single day's temperature, weather forecasting this far out, roughly a year, is essentially guesswork. The spread across three buckets (12°C, 13°C, 14°C) reflects how tightly clustered typical winter highs in Buenos Aires already are: a single passing cold front or clear sunny day shifts the outcome from one bucket to another. The market is fairly evenly split, which honestly mirrors the reality that July daily highs in Buenos Aires cluster right in this narrow band without a strongly dominant outcome.

The odds right now

• 13°C40%
• 14°C27%
• 15°C19%
• 12°C12%
• 16°C2%
• 11°C2%
• 9°C or below0%
• 10°C0%
• 17°C0%
• 18°C0%
• 19°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 20, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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