Highest temperature in Dallas on July 20?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will Dallas get on July 20, 2026? Specifically, it wants to know the single highest temperature recorded that day at Dallas Love Field airport, and which 2-degree range that peak temperature falls into. Think of it as guessing the hottest moment of the afternoon in Dallas on that one day. A result of 100, 101°F means a very hot summer day; 102, 103°F means an intense heat day; 98, 99°F means still hot, but slightly cooler than typical Dallas July peaks. The market settles based on the highest temperature logged at Dallas Love Field Station (weather station code KDAL) on July 20, 2026, as shown on Weather Underground. Whatever single peak temperature is recorded that day, in whole degrees Fahrenheit, determines which range wins. The market can only officially close after the first data point from July 21 appears, confirming the day is complete. Any late corrections to the July 20 readings made before that cutoff count; corrections made after do not. The only recent news provided involves flooding in a region of India, not relevant to Dallas weather conditions. There is no Dallas-specific weather news available here to point to. The kind of news that would matter for this market would be extended forecasts for Dallas in mid-to-late July 2026, or signals of an unusual heat dome or cool front moving through Texas around that date. July in Dallas is reliably hot, which is why the market clusters tightly around 98, 103°F, but a 4, 5 degree swing within that range is genuinely hard to pin down more than a year in advance. Day-to-day temperature variation depends on cloud cover, wind direction, humidity, and whether a weather system passes through. Long-range forecasts have very limited accuracy at this distance. The three leading ranges are all plausible, and a single unusual weather event the week before could shift the outcome meaningfully in any direction.

The odds right now

• 100-101°F49%
• 102-103°F27%
• 98-99°F20%
• 104-105°F7%
• 96-97°F1%
• 106-107°F1%
• 95°F or below1%
• 108-109°F1%
• 110-111°F0%
• 112-113°F0%
• 114°F or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 20, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Dallas Love Field Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.