Highest temperature in Denver on July 20?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will it get in the Denver area on July 20, 2026? Specifically, it wants to know the single highest temperature reading of the day at Buckley Space Force Base, a weather station in Aurora, just east of Denver, and which two-degree range that peak temperature falls into. The leading guess is 98, 99°F, followed closely by 100, 101°F, meaning the market expects a genuinely hot summer day, possibly crossing the 100-degree mark. The market settles based on the official peak temperature recorded at Buckley Space Force Base (station code KBKF) on July 20, 2026, as shown on Weather Underground, rounded to a whole number in Fahrenheit. Whatever the highest reading of the day is, it gets matched to one of the listed ranges, and that range wins. One thing to know: the result is locked in once the first data point from July 21 appears, so any temperature corrections made after that cutoff don't count. The only recent news provided is about flooding in a region of India, Rajouri and Poonch in Jammu & Kashmir. That has no connection to Denver weather. There's no relevant recent news to point to here. What would matter to watch is any extended heat forecast or heat dome advisory issued for the Denver metro area as July 20 approaches. Long-range weather forecasting is genuinely hard, and this market is asking about a specific single day still roughly a year away. Denver summers are hot, but daily highs can vary by 10°F or more depending on cloud cover, wind, or an afternoon thunderstorm. The split between 98, 99°F and 100, 101°F, which together cover 85% of the market, shows how close the call is. A storm rolling through could drop the peak; a clear, stagnant air mass could push it even higher than 101°F.

The odds right now

• 100-101°F43%
• 98-99°F39%
• 102-103°F8%
• 96-97°F8%
• 94-95°F1%
• 92-93°F1%
• 106-107°F0%
• 89°F or below0%
• 90-91°F0%
• 104-105°F0%
• 108°F or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 20, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Buckley Space Force Base Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Buckley Space Force Base Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/co/aurora/KBKF. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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