Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 20?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 20, 2026, what will the hottest temperature of the day be at Guangzhou's main airport? The options are specific degree values in Celsius, and you are picking which one matches the actual peak reading. Guangzhou is a large city in southern China, and mid-July is deep summer there, so temperatures in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius (roughly 88 to 95 degrees Fahrenheit) are typical. The market currently puts 32°C as the most likely outcome, with 33°C and 31°C also getting significant shares. The market settles based on the single highest temperature recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport on July 20, 2026, as shown on the Weather Underground website for that station. The reading is rounded to a whole number in Celsius, so there is no splitting between, say, 32.4°C and 32.7°C, both would count as 32°C. The market cannot close until the first data point for July 21 appears on that site, locking in the final reading. Any corrections made before that cutoff count; corrections made after do not. The two news items provided are about Indian political news and have no connection to Guangzhou weather. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. What would actually matter to watch closer to the date: local weather forecasts for Guangzhou in mid-July, any unusual heat advisories for southern China, or updates from meteorological services about that week's weather pattern. Weather forecasting over a year out is essentially impossible, so the current odds reflect historical patterns at that station rather than any actual forecast. Even a day or two before July 20, a passing cloud, a light rain shower, or a shift in wind direction could easily push the peak a degree warmer or cooler. The gap between the top three options (39%, 26%, 22%) is not enormous, meaning the market sees this as genuinely spread across a few plausible values. A one-degree difference is a small margin for any forecast to nail precisely.

The odds right now

• 33°C100%
• 34°C0%
• 26°C or below0%
• 27°C0%
• 28°C0%
• 29°C0%
• 30°C0%
• 31°C0%
• 32°C0%
• 35°C0%
• 36°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 20, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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