Highest temperature in Istanbul on July 21?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 21, 2026, what will the hottest reading of the day be at Istanbul Airport? The three choices are 28°C, 29°C, or 30°C, each representing a specific whole-number temperature. A "Yes" on 29°C, for example, means the single highest temperature recorded that day lands exactly on 29, not 28 or 30. It is essentially a forecast for one specific summer afternoon in Istanbul, narrowed down to a three-degree range. The market settles based on one data source only: the NOAA weather station at Istanbul Airport (station code LTFM). Whoever runs this market looks at every hourly temperature reading logged on July 21, 2026, finds the single highest number in whole degrees Celsius, and whichever option contains that number wins. The result cannot be confirmed until the first data point from July 22 appears on that page, to make sure no late revisions to the July 21 data are missed. After that cutoff, no further corrections count. There is no specific recent news available for this market. For a weather market like this one, what would matter most is any seasonal climate outlook for Istanbul in mid-summer, or records of recent July temperatures there. Istanbul's July highs typically sit in the high 20s to low 30s Celsius, which broadly matches the range the market is offering, but no specific forecast or data for July 2026 has been provided here. July 2026 is still well in the future, so no real forecast exists yet. The honest challenge here is that a single day's peak temperature is genuinely hard to pin down to one degree, even close to the date. The market splits across 29°C (43%), 28°C (22%), and 30°C (20%), meaning no option has a clear majority. A slightly cloudier afternoon, a sea breeze, or a passing weather system could shift the peak reading by exactly one degree, which changes everything. Small atmospheric differences carry outsized weight in a market this precise.

The odds right now

• 29°C59%
• 28°C27%
• 30°C12%
• 27°C3%
• 31°C2%
• 32°C1%
• 26°C1%
• 33°C0%
• 25°C0%
• 34°C or higher0%
• 24°C or below0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 21, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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