Highest temperature in Wuhan on July 21?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 21, 2026, what will the hottest temperature of the day be in Wuhan, China? Wuhan is a large inland city known for brutal summer heat, and mid-July is right in the peak of that season. The market breaks possible answers into specific degree brackets, and you pick which single degree reading will turn out to be correct. A result of 33°C, for example, means the thermometer peaked at exactly 33°C that day, not 32 or 34. The market settles based on one specific number: the highest temperature logged at Wuhan Tianhe International Airport on July 21, 2026, as reported by Weather Underground. The reading is rounded to a whole degree Celsius, no decimals. The market waits until the first data point from July 22 appears on that site, then locks in whatever the peak reading was for July 21. If Weather Underground later revises the number, that revision only counts if it happens before that first July 22 data point appears. The only recent news provided is about Indian Prime Minister Modi addressing media before a parliamentary session, which has no connection to Wuhan weather. There is no relevant recent weather news to point to here. What would actually matter to watch closer to the date is any extended forecast for Wuhan in mid-to-late July 2026, particularly whether a heat dome or monsoon moisture is influencing temperatures that week. Weather this far out is genuinely hard to pin down, even for professional forecasters. Wuhan in mid-July typically sits in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius, which is why 31, 32, and 33 all hold meaningful shares of the odds. But a single day's peak can swing several degrees depending on cloud cover, rain, or a shift in regional wind patterns. The market currently spreads probability fairly evenly across three nearby values, reflecting real uncertainty about which specific degree the thermometer will land on.

The odds right now

• 34°C34%
• 33°C32%
• 32°C17%
• 35°C12%
• 31°C6%
• 30°C1%
• 36°C1%
• 29°C0%
• 37°C or higher0%
• 28°C0%
• 27°C or below0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 21, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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