Highest temperature in Los Angeles on July 20?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 20, 2026, how hot will it get in Los Angeles? Specifically, it wants to know the single highest temperature of the day, measured at the weather station at LAX airport, and which 2-degree range that peak temperature falls into. A win for '78-79°F' means the hottest moment of that day lands somewhere in that band, think a warm but not scorching summer afternoon on the coast. At the end of July 20, 2026, whoever runs this market checks the Weather Underground website for the LAX airport station and reads off the single highest temperature recorded that day, rounded to the nearest whole degree Fahrenheit. Whichever 2-degree range contains that number wins. One small but important detail: if the temperature gets revised during the day, the last recorded figure before midnight counts, but any corrections made after the following day's first data point appears are ignored. None of the recent news provided relates to this market. There are no weather forecasts or climate reports in the headlines to draw from. What would actually matter here is a seasonal forecast for Southern California in mid-July 2026, or any unusual weather pattern, like a marine layer, a heat dome, or an offshore wind event, developing around that date. July in Los Angeles genuinely varies more than people expect. LAX sits right on the coast, where ocean breezes can keep highs in the mid-70s, but inland heat can push those same days into the low 80s. The market currently leans toward 78-79°F at 38%, with 80-81°F and 76-77°F also holding meaningful shares. Since we're still about a year out, no reliable forecast exists yet. The biggest wildcard is whether a marine layer or a heat event arrives that specific day.

The odds right now

• 78-79°F46%
• 76-77°F30%
• 80-81°F18%
• 82-83°F5%
• 74-75°F3%
• 72-73°F1%
• 84-85°F1%
• 71°F or below1%
• 86-87°F0%
• 88-89°F0%
• 90°F or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 20, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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