Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 21?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 21, 2026, how hot will it get in Shanghai? Specifically, it's asking which temperature 'bucket' the day's peak heat will land in, 32°C (about 90°F), 33°C (about 91°F), 34°C (about 93°F), or presumably other options not shown. Think of it like a guessing game for the afternoon high on one specific summer day, measured at Shanghai's Pudong Airport weather station. The market settles based on the single highest temperature recorded at Shanghai Pudong Airport on July 21, 2026, pulled from the Weather Underground website. Whatever whole-number Celsius reading appears as the day's peak, say, 33°C, that's the winning bucket. The key detail: the reading is rounded to the nearest whole degree, so a reading of 33.7°C counts as 33°C, not 34°C. The result is locked in once the first data point from July 22 appears on the site. The one news item provided, flooding in Rajouri, India, has no connection to Shanghai's weather on this date. There's no relevant recent news to point to here. What would actually matter to watch for is any seasonal forecast for East China in late July, or updates from meteorological agencies about heat patterns over the Yangtze River Delta as the date approaches. Weather is genuinely hard to predict more than a few days out, and this market resolves over a year from now, so any forecast today is essentially guesswork. Late July is peak summer in Shanghai, where highs routinely sit between 32°C and 36°C, which is exactly why three different temperature buckets each hold meaningful odds right now. A single passing storm or a heat dome can easily shift the answer by two or three degrees, making this a close three-way split that only real-time forecasts, closer to the date, can meaningfully narrow.

The odds right now

• 33°C38%
• 32°C25%
• 34°C20%
• 31°C11%
• 35°C8%
• 30°C2%
• 36°C1%
• 29°C1%
• 28°C or below0%
• 37°C0%
• 38°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 21, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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