Highest temperature in Milan on July 20?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will Milan get on July 20, 2026? Specifically, it wants to know the single highest temperature recorded that day at Malpensa International Airport, and whether that peak will land at 30°C (86°F), 31°C (88°F), or 32°C or above (90°F+). Think of it as a contest over what the thermometer's highest reading will be on that one summer day. The market settles based on one specific number: the highest temperature logged at Malpensa Airport on July 20, 2026, as shown on the Weather Underground website. Whichever temperature range that number falls into wins. The reading is in whole degrees Celsius, no decimals. The result is locked in once the first data point from July 21 appears on that site, after which any later corrections to the July 20 data are ignored. No recent news was provided for this market. What would matter closer to the date are seasonal weather forecasts for northern Italy in mid-July, things like whether a heat dome or cooler Atlantic air is expected over Europe that week. Those kinds of short-range forecasts typically only become reliable within about 7, 10 days of the date itself. Weather is genuinely hard to predict more than a few days out, and July 20, 2026 is still well in the future. Milan's summer highs can vary significantly year to year, hot spells can push temperatures well above 32°C, while cloudier or breezier days can keep things closer to 28, 29°C. The market currently spreads its weight across all three options, with 30°C holding the most weight, which reflects how wide the realistic range actually is.

The odds right now

• 30°C37%
• 31°C33%
• 32°C or higher20%
• 29°C13%
• 28°C2%
• 27°C1%
• 22°C or below0%
• 23°C0%
• 24°C0%
• 25°C0%
• 26°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 20, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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