Highest temperature in Moscow on July 20?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: what will the hottest moment of the day be in Moscow on July 20, 2026? Specifically, it's asking you to pick the right temperature bucket, 27°C, 28°C, 29°C, or something else, for the single highest reading recorded that day. Think of it like guessing the peak of a thermometer at a specific airport on one specific summer afternoon. The market settles based on one data source only: NOAA's official hourly temperature log for Vnukovo International Airport (Moscow's airport, code UUWW). Whatever the highest single reading is on July 20, 2026, rounded to a whole number in Celsius, that's the winning bracket. The result is locked in once the first temperature reading of July 21 appears on the NOAA page, after which no corrections to the July 20 data are considered. The only recent headlines provided are about flooding in the Rajouri region of India, entirely unrelated to Moscow weather. There's no relevant recent news to point to here. What would actually matter to watch closer to the date: extended weather forecasts for Moscow in mid-to-late July, and any unusual pressure systems over western Russia. Weather forecasting more than a day or two out is genuinely hard, even for professionals. The three leading options, 27°C, 28°C, and 29°C, together account for about 83% of the market's probability, meaning participants think the answer is almost certainly in that narrow band, but they're split on which degree wins. A single passing cloud, a shift in wind direction, or an unexpected heatwave could move the needle by one or two degrees, which is all it takes to change the outcome entirely.

The odds right now

• 28°C40%
• 27°C34%
• 26°C14%
• 29°C13%
• 25°C2%
• 30°C1%
• 24°C1%
• 31°C1%
• 23°C or below0%
• 32°C0%
• 33°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 20, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 20 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.