Highest temperature in Munich on July 20?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: what will the hottest moment of July 20, 2026 feel like at Munich's airport, specifically, will the peak temperature that day land at 23°C, 24°C, 25°C, or something else? Each option is a single degree on the Celsius scale. For reference, 23°C is a comfortable 73°F, 24°C is about 75°F, and 25°C is about 77°F, so this is asking whether that particular summer day in Munich will be mild, slightly warm, or a touch warmer still. The market settles based on the single highest temperature recorded at Munich Airport (weather station code EDDM) on July 20, 2026, as shown on Weather Underground. The reading is rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius, no decimals. One important detail: the market waits until the first data point from July 21 is published before finalizing, giving time for any last-minute corrections to July 20's readings. After that cutoff, no further revisions count. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. Since the date is still over a year away, that's expected, meaningful weather forecasts for a specific day don't exist that far out. What would matter to watch closer to the date: any seasonal outlooks for Central European summer temperatures, or patterns like heat waves or unusually cool spells developing in the weeks before July 20, 2026. A year-out weather prediction for a single day is genuinely very hard. The market currently leans toward 24°C (38%), but July weather in Munich ranges widely, cool and rainy days sit in the low 20s, while summer heat waves can push well past 30°C. A single passing cloud system or a heat dome could swing the answer by several degrees. The odds reflect statistical patterns from historical July data, but any individual day carries real randomness that no forecast this far out can capture.

The odds right now

• 24°C43%
• 23°C27%
• 25°C18%
• 22°C11%
• 26°C3%
• 21°C2%
• 27°C or higher1%
• 20°C0%
• 19°C0%
• 18°C0%
• 17°C or below0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 20, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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