Highest temperature in Paris on July 20?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 20, 2026, what will the highest temperature of the day be in Paris, specifically at the Le Bourget Airport weather station? The three options are 23°C (about 73°F), 24°C (about 75°F), or 25°C (about 77°F), a fairly narrow band covering a pleasantly warm summer day. Whichever single degree matches the actual peak temperature recorded that day wins. Think of it as picking the top number on a thermometer for one specific afternoon. The market settles based on the single highest temperature reading logged by the Paris Le Bourget Airport weather station on July 20, 2026, as reported on the Weather Underground website. The temperature is rounded to a whole degree Celsius, no decimals. The result is locked in once the first data point for July 21 appears on that site. Any corrections made before that cutoff count; corrections after it do not. Whichever option, 23°C, 24°C, or 25°C, contains that final peak number is declared the winner. No relevant news was provided for this market. That's completely normal, weather markets like this one are decided by meteorological conditions, not events. What would actually matter to watch closer to the date is any extended forecast for Paris from mid-July onward, particularly whether a heat ridge or a cool Atlantic front is expected to move through France around July 20. Weather is genuinely hard to predict more than a few days out, and this market covers a very tight range, just three degrees separating the options. The spread between 23°C and 25°C is small enough that a passing cloud, a slight wind shift, or a front arriving a day early or late could swing the result. The market currently leans toward 24°C at 48%, but the other two outcomes together account for nearly half the probability, reflecting real uncertainty. No forecast today can reliably pin down a single degree over a year away.

The odds right now

• 24°C60%
• 23°C28%
• 25°C14%
• 22°C1%
• 26°C1%
• 27°C1%
• 21°C or below1%
• 28°C0%
• 29°C0%
• 30°C0%
• 31°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 20, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.