Highest temperature in Paris on July 21?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: what will the hottest moment of July 21, 2026 feel like in Paris? Specifically, it asks you to pick which temperature bucket, 25°C, 26°C, or 27°C (and presumably others not shown), will contain the single highest temperature reading recorded that day. In practical terms, 25°C is a warm but comfortable summer day, 26°C is noticeably warm, and 27°C is getting into genuinely hot territory. The market is essentially asking you to predict the peak of that particular summer day. The market settles based on one specific data source: the Weather Underground page for Paris-Le Bourget Airport. Whatever whole-number Celsius peak temperature appears there for July 21, 2026, that is the answer. The reading must be a whole degree, so 26.7°C would count as 26°C. The market waits until the first data point for July 22 appears before finalizing, meaning any late corrections to the July 21 readings made before that cutoff are still counted. After that point, no further corrections matter. There is no specific recent news available for this market. Because the event is over a year away, the most relevant things to watch for closer to the date would be seasonal weather outlooks for France, any emerging patterns in European summer temperatures, and short-range forecasts in the days just before July 21, 2026. A year-ahead weather forecast is genuinely one of the hardest things to predict. Weather models cannot reliably see that far out, so right now the odds are essentially built from historical patterns of what Paris temperatures look like on typical mid-July days, not from any actual forecast. Even on the day itself, a passing cloud cover, a shift in wind direction, or an unexpected heat dome can move the peak temperature by several degrees. The spread across 25, 26, and 27°C reflects that honest uncertainty.

The odds right now

• 26°C46%
• 25°C28%
• 27°C18%
• 24°C9%
• 28°C1%
• 23°C1%
• 29°C0%
• 30°C0%
• 21°C or below0%
• 22°C0%
• 31°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 21, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

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