Highest temperature in Taipei on July 20?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 20, 2026, how hot will it get in Taipei? Specifically, it wants to know the single highest temperature of the day recorded at Taipei Songshan Airport, rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius. The three options, 35°C, 36°C, and 37°C, are the ranges participants can choose from, like picking a bucket the final number will land in. To give you a feel for the scale: 35°C is about 95°F, 37°C is about 99°F, a very hot summer day. The market settles based on the peak temperature logged at Taipei Songshan Airport on July 20, 2026, as shown on Weather Underground's historical records for that station. Whatever the single highest whole-degree Celsius reading is that day determines which option wins. The data is only locked in once the first reading from July 21 appears, until then, any corrections to July 20's temperatures still count. After that cutoff, no revisions are accepted, even if errors are later discovered. The only recent news provided is about flooding in the Rajouri and Poonch regions of India, this has no connection to Taipei's weather on July 20, 2026. There is no relevant news to point to here. The kind of update that would actually matter is a seasonal weather forecast for Taipei in mid-July, or any unusual Pacific weather patterns that could push temperatures higher or lower than the historical average. Taipei in late July is reliably hot, so the question is less 'will it be hot?' and more 'exactly how hot?', and that one-degree difference is genuinely hard to predict a year out. July 20 is a single day, and daily highs can shift several degrees based on cloud cover, rain, or wind that no model can reliably forecast this far ahead. The market spreads its weight across 35°C (37%), 36°C (29%), and 37°C (15%), reflecting real uncertainty about which exact notch the thermometer lands on.

The odds right now

• 35°C37%
• 36°C36%
• 34°C14%
• 37°C11%
• 33°C4%
• 38°C or higher2%
• 32°C1%
• 30°C0%
• 31°C0%
• 28°C or below0%
• 29°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 20, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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