Highest temperature in Toronto on July 20?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking a simple weather question: on July 20, 2026, what will the hottest part of the day feel like in Toronto? The options are specific whole-number temperatures in Celsius, so a Yes on '26°C' means the thermometer peaks at exactly 26 that day, not 25, not 27. Think of it as picking the single degree on the thermometer where the day's heat stops climbing. Each temperature is its own option, and only one wins. After July 20, 2026 ends, the market checks one specific source, Weather Underground's historical data for Toronto Pearson International Airport, and reads the single highest temperature recorded that day, rounded to a whole degree Celsius. Whatever that number is, the matching option wins. There's one small catch: the market waits until the first data point for July 21 appears before settling, so last-minute corrections to the July 20 reading still count. After that cutoff, no further changes are considered. There's no relevant recent news available for this market. That's not unusual, this is a weather question about a date over a year away. What would actually matter closer to the date is seasonal forecasts for southern Ontario in late July, and eventually the short-range weather models as July 20, 2026 approaches. Weather a year out is genuinely hard to predict, even professional forecasters can't reliably nail a single degree a week in advance, let alone a year. The market currently leans toward 26°C (36%), with 25°C and 27°C also holding real probability, which reflects how close these outcomes are in practice. Late July in Toronto typically brings warm, humid days, but any given day could land a few degrees cooler or warmer depending on wind, cloud cover, or a passing front, none of which anyone can see from here.

The odds right now

• 26°C38%
• 25°C32%
• 27°C17%
• 24°C or below16%
• 28°C2%
• 29°C1%
• 30°C0%
• 31°C0%
• 32°C0%
• 33°C0%
• 34°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 20, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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