Highest temperature in Wuhan on July 22?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will Wuhan get on July 22, 2026? Specifically, it asks what the single highest temperature of the day will be, measured in whole degrees Celsius, at the weather station inside Wuhan's main airport. The options are different temperature values, and whichever one matches the actual peak temperature that day wins. Think of it as guessing the hottest point of a summer day in one of China's famously hot cities. The market settles based on the peak temperature logged on July 22, 2026, at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport weather station, as reported by Weather Underground. The reading is rounded to a whole number in Celsius, so 31.7°C would count as 31°C. The market waits until the first data point from July 23 appears on that site before finalizing, to allow any same-day corrections. After that cutoff, no further revisions to the recorded temperature are considered. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. For a weather market like this, what would matter most to watch closer to the date is any extended forecast for Wuhan in late July 2026, or reports of unusual heat patterns across central China that summer. July in Wuhan is reliably hot, so the question is not whether it will be warm but exactly which degree it lands on. The market spreads its probability across several close values, which reflects genuine difficulty: even good forecasts can miss by a degree or two, and a single passing cloud or a slightly stronger breeze can shift the peak reading. The spread between 30°C and 32°C is narrow enough that small, unpredictable factors on that specific day can decide the outcome.

The odds right now

• 31°C32%
• 30°C28%
• 29°C22%
• 32°C16%
• 33°C6%
• 28°C3%
• 34°C1%
• 27°C1%
• 26°C0%
• 35°C or higher0%
• 25°C or below0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 22, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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