How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking how many seats Putin's ruling party — United Russia — will control in Russia's parliament after the September 2026 election. The State Duma has 450 total seats, so the brackets here (310–324, 325–339, 340–354) represent roughly 69% to 79% of all seats. A 'Yes' for a higher bracket means United Russia dominates even more; a lower bracket means it wins fewer seats than expected — though still a large majority either way. The market settles based on the official seat count United Russia holds in the State Duma after the September 2026 vote. Whichever bracket matches that final number wins. If results aren't confirmed by May 31, 2027, the market automatically resolves to the lowest bracket — that's an important edge case. The primary source will be credible news reporting, but if there's disagreement, Russian government sources like the Central Election Commission become the tiebreaker. None of the provided news headlines are relevant to this market — they cover unrelated topics like US military events, Cuba, and celebrity stories. There is no recent news here that sheds light on United Russia's expected performance. The kind of development that would matter: any reporting on Russian electoral conditions, opposition access, or early polling ahead of the 2026 vote. Several layers make this genuinely hard to call. Russian elections have historically shown results that independent observers contest, so even 'official' seat counts may not reflect real public sentiment. The war in Ukraine adds an unpredictable backdrop — domestic conditions could shift. The three leading brackets are closely clustered (19–26% each), meaning the market itself has no strong consensus. And since the election is still over a year away, a lot can change before a single vote is cast.

The odds right now

• 325–339-7.0 pts (1w)25%
• 340–354-2.0 pts (1w)25%
• 310–324+4.0 pts (1w)19%
• 355++2.0 pts (1w)16%
• 295–309+1.3 pts (1w)5%
• 280–294+0.5 pts (1w)3%
• <280-4.0 pts (1w)2%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves September 20, 2026

Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by United Russia in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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