Is Earth flat?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether anyone will prove, beyond doubt, that the Earth is flat before the end of 2026. A Yes means conclusive flat-Earth evidence becomes publicly accepted by credible sources. A No means that does not happen, which in practice means the Earth continues to be understood as the roughly spherical planet that centuries of science, satellite imagery, and physics have confirmed it to be. The market settles Yes only if conclusive proof of a flat Earth becomes public by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM Eastern Time, and a consensus of credible reporting confirms it. If no such proof appears, it resolves No. The bar is very high: personal claims or fringe videos would not qualify. It would take widely accepted, verifiable evidence recognized across mainstream scientific and journalistic sources. None of the recent news provided relates to this question. There are no reports of flat-Earth evidence emerging. If you wanted to watch for something relevant, it would be a major scientific announcement or credible investigative report challenging the established understanding of Earth's shape, which has not appeared. The market prices this at 2%, meaning it treats Yes as almost impossible, and that reflects the scientific consensus built over centuries. The honest uncertainty here is not really a two-sided debate. The tiny remaining probability exists because prediction markets technically stay open to surprises. The practical question is simply whether something completely unprecedented happens before the deadline, and the market strongly implies participants consider that extremely unlikely.

The odds right now

• Is Earth flat?+0.5 pts (1w)2%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves January 1, 2027

This market will resolve to "Yes" if conclusive proof that the earth is flat becomes public by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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