Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether Kim Jong Un will lose power in North Korea before the end of 2026. A Yes means he is no longer running the country — through death, a coup, forced removal, or any other reason. A No means he is still in charge when the deadline arrives. It does not matter how he loses power or even briefly; if he stops being Supreme Leader for any period, that counts. The market settles Yes the moment Kim Jong Un is confirmed to have lost his position — through an official announcement, credible news reporting, or clear signs he has been permanently removed from power. That confirmation can come from North Korean state media or from a consensus of trustworthy international news sources. If he is still in charge on December 31, 2026, it resolves No. Note: even a brief removal counts — he doesn't have to be gone permanently for the whole period. None of the recent news provided relates to North Korea or Kim Jong Un's political position. No relevant developments were supplied for this market. The kinds of events worth watching would be unusual absences from public appearances, sudden political reshuffles inside North Korea, or credible reports of health problems — the same signals analysts have tracked for years. The market prices this at only 4%, reflecting how rarely leadership changes happen in North Korea. Kim Jong Un has held firm control since 2011, and the country is one of the most closed and information-restricted on Earth. The genuine uncertainty here is not a balanced debate — it is whether a genuinely unexpected event, like a serious health crisis or internal coup, occurs. Those events are hard to predict anywhere, and almost impossible to anticipate in North Korea specifically.

The odds right now

• Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?-0.7 pts (1w)3%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kim Jong Un ceases to be Supreme Leader of North Korea for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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