Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 21?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking a simple weather question: what will the coolest temperature of the day be in Hong Kong on July 21, 2026? The options are temperature bands, so you are not picking an exact number but rather a range. A result of 28°C means the night or early morning low stayed relatively warm, while 26°C would mean conditions cooled off a bit more than usual for a Hong Kong summer day. The Hong Kong Observatory publishes an official daily climate record that lists the absolute minimum temperature for each day. Once that data is published for July 21, 2026, whichever temperature band contains that official low reading wins. The key detail: only the first published figure counts. If the Observatory later corrects or revises that number, the revision is ignored for this market. The market cannot settle until the Observatory actually publishes the data. None of the recent news provided relates to Hong Kong weather or conditions heading into July 21. No forecasts or climate reports were included. The kind of news that would matter here is a Hong Kong weather forecast for that date, or reports of an unusual weather pattern such as a tropical storm or a cool air mass approaching the region. July is deep summer in Hong Kong, which is why the market clusters around 27 and 28°C. Those temperatures are typical for the season, but weather is genuinely hard to pin down a year in advance. A passing tropical system, an overnight rain event, or a brief dip in humidity could push the low a degree or two in either direction. The gap between the top two options is small enough that even a slight change in conditions on that specific night could shift the outcome.

The odds right now

• 27°C35%
• 26°C26%
• 28°C23%
• 25°C12%
• 29°C3%
• 24°C1%
• 23°C0%
• 22°C or below0%
• 30°C0%
• 31°C0%
• 32°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 21, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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