Lowest temperature in Shanghai on July 20?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 20, 2026, what will the coolest temperature of the day be in Shanghai? Specifically, it's measuring the overnight-into-morning low at Shanghai Pudong International Airport, the coldest point in the full 24-hour period. The three options are 26°C, 27°C, or 28°C (roughly 79°F, 81°F, and 82°F), which are all quite warm by global standards but typical for Shanghai in the height of summer. After July 20, 2026 ends, the market settles based on the single lowest temperature reading logged that day at Shanghai Pudong Airport, as shown on Weather Underground's historical data page for that station. The temperature is rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius. One important detail: the market waits until the first data point for July 21 appears before locking in the result, so any last-minute corrections to July 20 readings still count, but corrections made after that cutoff do not. No recent news relevant to this market was provided. The only headline supplied is about flooding in Rajouri, India, which has no bearing on Shanghai weather. What would actually matter here is any long-range weather forecast for Shanghai around July 20, 2026, or climate pattern signals like La Niña or La Niña, but no such information is available right now. July is deep summer in Shanghai, so temperatures stay warm overnight, but the exact low on any single night is hard to pin down a year in advance. The market is fairly spread across three close options, 26°C, 27°C, and 28°C are just one degree apart, and a single passing cloud system or rain event could shift the overnight low enough to change the outcome. Weather forecasting beyond a week is genuinely unreliable, so a full year out, this is essentially reading historical climate patterns rather than a real forecast.

The odds right now

• 27°C91%
• 26°C8%
• 25°C1%
• 24°C0%
• 22°C or below0%
• 23°C0%
• 28°C0%
• 29°C0%
• 30°C0%
• 31°C0%
• 32°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 20, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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