Lowest temperature in Seoul on July 21?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: what will the coolest temperature of the day be in the Seoul area on July 21, 2026? The reading comes from the weather station at Incheon International Airport, which sits just west of Seoul. The options are 23°C, 24°C, or 25°C, which in everyday terms is the warm, humid range you'd expect on a mid-summer night in Korea. The market is really asking how cool it gets overnight into that day. The market settles based on the single lowest temperature reading recorded at Incheon Airport on July 21, 2026, pulled from the Weather Underground website. Whatever the coldest number is that day, rounded to a whole degree Celsius, determines the winner. One important detail: the market waits until the first data point from July 22 appears before it officially closes, giving time for any late corrections to the July 21 readings to be captured. None of the provided news headlines relate to Seoul weather, Korean climate conditions, or anything that would inform how temperatures might behave on July 21, 2026. To track this market, the most useful things to watch closer to the date would be seasonal forecasts for the Korean peninsula and any unusual weather patterns in East Asia during that week. Weather a year out is genuinely hard to call. The market clusters around 23°C and 24°C, with 25°C as a smaller possibility, but summer overnight lows in Seoul vary based on humidity, cloud cover, and whether a cooler air mass moves through. A single degree is a very narrow target. Even short-range forecasts within a few days can miss by that margin. The honest answer is that no one can know the exact overnight low on a specific future date this far ahead.

The odds right now

• 23°C45%
• 24°C32%
• 22°C8%
• 21°C7%
• 25°C7%
• 20°C3%
• 26°C2%
• 19°C or below1%
• 27°C1%
• 28°C0%
• 29°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 21, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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