Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 21?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: when July 21, 2026 is over in Hong Kong, what will the single highest temperature of the day be? The options are temperature bands, so picking 31°C means you think the peak reading that day will fall somewhere in the 31-degree range, like 31.0 to 31.9°C. It is simply a forecast of one day's hottest moment, measured at the official Hong Kong Observatory station. After July 21, 2026 ends, the Hong Kong Observatory publishes an official daily record called the Daily Extract, which lists the absolute maximum temperature for that day to one decimal place. Whatever band that number falls into wins. The first published figure is final: any corrections made later do not count. There is no human judgment call here, just a single number from an official weather record. None of the recent news provided is related to Hong Kong weather or temperature forecasts. No relevant headlines were given. The kind of update that would actually matter here is a weather forecast for Hong Kong around July 21, or news about an approaching typhoon or heatwave, since those events can push daily highs sharply up or down. Weather on a specific future date is genuinely hard to predict, even a day out, let alone over a year in advance. July is deep in Hong Kong's hot and humid summer, so temperatures in the 30-32°C range are historically common, which is why those three bands split most of the probability. But a passing typhoon, a rainy overcast day, or an unusual heat surge can each shift the peak by several degrees, making any single outcome far from certain.

The odds right now

• 30°C37%
• 31°C34%
• 29°C14%
• 32°C12%
• 28°C4%
• 33°C2%
• 34°C1%
• 25°C or below0%
• 26°C0%
• 27°C0%
• 35°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 21, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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