Lowest temperature in Shanghai on July 21?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on the night and morning of July 21, 2026, how cool will Shanghai actually get? July is deep summer in Shanghai, so the city stays warm even at its coldest point of the day, typically around 3 to 5 in the morning. The three choices, 26°C, 27°C, and 28°C, are all quite warm by most standards, roughly 79 to 82°F. The question is just which narrow band the overnight low falls into at the airport weather station. The market settles on whichever temperature bracket matches the single lowest reading recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on July 21, 2026, as shown on the Weather Underground website for that station. The number is rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius. The reading is locked in once the first data point for July 22 appears on that site. Any corrections published before that cutoff count; corrections after do not. There is no human judgment involved, just one automated weather station reading. None of the provided news headlines relate to Shanghai's weather or climate conditions. No relevant recent news was shared for this market. The kind of development worth watching would be a forecast or weather pattern report specifically covering Shanghai in late July 2026, such as an unusually strong heat dome or a cooling typhoon track that could push temperatures above or below the typical range. Weather forecasting more than a few days out is genuinely difficult, and this market resolves over a year from now. The three options are all clustered within just two degrees of each other, so even a small shift in wind direction, cloud cover, or humidity on that specific night could move the answer from one bracket to another. The market currently splits the probability fairly evenly across 26, 27, and 28°C, which honestly reflects how hard it is to pick one narrow band that far in advance.

The odds right now

• 27°C40%
• 28°C39%
• 29°C18%
• 26°C8%
• 25°C2%
• 24°C1%
• 23°C1%
• 22°C or below0%
• 30°C0%
• 31°C0%
• 32°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 21, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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