MN-02 House Election Winner: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking which party will win one specific congressional seat in Minnesota in the 2026 midterm elections. Minnesota's 2nd congressional district (MN-02) is a geographic area south of the Twin Cities. A Yes for Democrats means a Democrat wins that seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. A Yes for Republicans means a Republican wins it. Whoever wins represents that district in Congress for a two-year term starting in January 2027. The market settles based on who actually wins the MN-02 election on November 3, 2026. The winner is determined by a consensus of credible news reporting, and if there is any dispute, the official Federal Election Commission results decide it. One important detail: if a candidate runs without a clear party label, the market assigns them to whichever party they said they would caucus with in Congress. The market closes the day after the election, on November 4, 2026. The provided news covers broad House Republican activity in Washington, including a large spending package and a Pentagon funding bill. None of this is specific to MN-02 or its candidates, so there is no district-level news to point to here. What would actually matter to watch for is candidate announcements for this seat, local polling, and any national political environment shifts that tend to favor one party heading into midterms. The market prices this heavily toward Democrats at 90%, so the honest framing is not two equal sides. The main uncertainty is whether something unexpected shifts the outcome: a strong Republican recruit, a national political wave, a scandal, or a candidate change. MN-02 has leaned Democratic in recent cycles, which explains the lopsided odds. But the election is still more than a year away, candidates may not be set yet, and midterm environments can change significantly between now and November 2026.

The odds right now

• Democratic Party+4.0 pts (1w)90%
• Republican Party-2.6 pts (1w)9%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves November 4, 2026

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.