MT-02 House Election Winner: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks a simple question: will the winner of Montana's Second Congressional District seat in the 2026 U.S. House election be a Republican or a Democrat? Montana has two congressional districts, and MT-02 is the newer one, created after the 2020 census gave Montana a second seat. A Yes on Republican means a Republican candidate wins that seat; a Yes on Democrat means a Democrat wins it. The market settles based on who actually wins the MT-02 seat on Election Day, November 3, 2026. The winner is determined by credible news reporting, and if there is any dispute, the official Federal Election Commission results are the final word. One notable rule: if an independent candidate wins, they are assigned to whichever major party they said they would align with in Congress, so a party label on the ballot is not strictly required. None of the provided recent headlines relate to Montana's MT-02 race specifically. No candidate announcements, polling, or district-level news was included. The kind of news that would matter here includes: who files to run in this race, any primary results, and broader national trends that tend to shift House seats toward one party during midterm elections. The market is heavily one-sided, priced at 94% Republican, so the honest framing is not two equal sides competing. Montana leans strongly Republican at the federal level, and MT-02 was won by a Republican in its first election. The main uncertainty is simply whether something unexpected happens: a strong Democratic candidate, a national political shift, a Republican scandal, or a very unusual midterm environment. At 94%, the market is not calling this a coin toss.

The odds right now

• Republican Party94%
• Democratic Party+1.0 pts (1w)7%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves November 3, 2026

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.