Next Claude Opus released on...?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking which specific date Anthropic will publicly release its next Claude Opus model. Anthropic names its AI models in tiers: Haiku is the lightest, Sonnet is the middle tier, and Opus is the most powerful. The question is simply: on what day will a new Opus model become available for anyone to use? The leading options are July 21, July 23, or no release at all before the market closes on July 31, 2026. The market settles on whichever date a new Claude Opus model becomes publicly accessible, meaning anyone can sign up and use it. A closed or invite-only beta does not count. The model must be officially named Opus by Anthropic, so a powerful new model released under a different name, like Sonnet or a brand-new name, would not qualify. Anthropic's own announcements are the primary source, backed by credible tech reporting. No relevant news was provided for this market. The headlines supplied cover unrelated topics entirely. The kind of news that would matter here is an official Anthropic announcement, a credible tech journalist reporting an imminent launch, or Anthropic updating its website with a new Opus model listing. The market is fairly split across three options, which tells you this is genuinely uncertain. Anthropic does not pre-announce exact release dates for its models, so even well-informed observers are largely guessing based on past patterns and leaks. There is also a real 20% chance priced on no release at all by July 31, meaning the market sees meaningful odds that no qualifying Opus model arrives within this window. Timing of AI releases can shift quickly in either direction.

The odds right now

• July 2329%
• July 2418%
• No release by July 3114%
• July 2813%
• July 2110%
• July 226%
• July 295%
• July 274%
• July 204%
• July 301%
• July 260%
• July 250%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 31, 2026

This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public. Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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