Predict.fun FDV above ___ one day after launch?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks how valuable Predict.fun's token will be on its first full day of trading. Fully Diluted Valuation, or FDV, is a way to measure a crypto token's total implied worth: you take the price of one token and multiply it by the total number of tokens that will ever exist. So a Yes on the $100M threshold means that calculation lands above $100 million. A No means it lands below, or the token never launches at all. The market settles based on the token's price at 4:00 PM Eastern Time on the calendar day after launch, using the most liquid trading source available at that moment. The token must be freely tradable by the public to count as launched. If Predict.fun does not launch a token before midnight on December 31, 2027, all three thresholds resolve No automatically, regardless of any plans or announcements. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. The developments most worth watching would be any official announcement from Predict.fun about a token launch date, a whitepaper or tokenomics release, or broader crypto market conditions around launch time, since all of these would directly affect the opening FDV. The biggest unknown is simply whether the token launches at all, and if it does, early crypto token prices can swing wildly in the first 24 hours, making any specific dollar threshold genuinely hard to pin down. The market currently prices the $50M threshold at 92%, meaning most participants expect a launch above that level, but the gap between 92% and 83% across the three thresholds shows real disagreement about how high it will go. Hype, market timing, and tokenomics all play a role.

The odds right now

• $50M-2.0 pts (1w)92%
• $100M89%
• $200M-1.5 pts (1w)83%
• $300M-1.5 pts (1w)78%
• $400M-5.0 pts (1w)70%
• $500M-8.0 pts (1w)54%
• $600M-10.5 pts (1w)43%
• $800M-11.5 pts (1w)34%
• $1B-5.9 pts (1w)31%
• $1.5B-0.1 pts (1w)23%
• $2B-2.5 pts (1w)13%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves January 1, 2028

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Predict.fun's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.