Opensea FDV above ___ one day after launch?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking how big OpenSea's token will be, in total value, about one day after it first launches to the public. The specific measure is called Fully Diluted Valuation, or FDV, which means: if you took every single token that will ever exist and multiplied it by the price on that day, what dollar number do you get? The three options on offer are whether that number lands above $100M, $100M again (a duplicate that appears in the data), or $300M. Bigger FDV means the market thinks OpenSea as a whole is worth more. The market settles based on the FDV of the OpenSea token at exactly 4:00 PM Eastern Time on the calendar day after the token launches. For the launch to count, the token must be freely tradable by the public, not just announced. The price used will come from whichever trading venue has the most volume at that moment. There is one important edge case: if OpenSea never launches a token before December 31, 2026 at midnight ET, the whole market resolves No, regardless of anything else. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. The key thing to watch for would be any official announcement from OpenSea about a token launch date, a whitepaper, or regulatory filings, since those would be the clearest signals that a launch is actually coming within the timeframe. There are two completely separate layers of uncertainty here. First, nobody knows if OpenSea will even launch a token before the end of 2026. OpenSea has been discussed as a potential token issuer for years without doing it. Second, if a launch does happen, crypto token valuations on day one are notoriously volatile and hard to forecast. Hype, market conditions, token supply structure, and exchange listings can all swing the FDV dramatically within hours. Both unknowns together make this genuinely difficult to read.

The odds right now

• $300M26%
• $100M-3.3 pts (1w)25%
• $500M -0.1 pts (1w)23%
• $100M-2.5 pts (1w)20%
• $1B-2.5 pts (1w)13%
• $2B-1.0 pts (1w)8%
• $3B-0.6 pts (1w)6%
• $5B+0.1 pts (1w)5%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves January 1, 2027

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Opensea's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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