Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking how valuable Variational's new crypto token will be, measured one day after it launches. The specific number being tested is the 'Fully Diluted Valuation', or FDV, which is simply the token's price multiplied by the total number of tokens that will ever exist. Think of it like a company's market cap, but counting every share, even ones not yet in circulation. A Yes means the token's total implied value clears the threshold ($100M, $200M, or $300M depending on which version you're looking at). A No means it falls short. The market settles based on the token's FDV at 4:00 PM Eastern Time on the calendar day after Variational's token officially launches. For it to count as a launch, the token must be publicly tradable, not just announced. The price used will be whatever the most active trading market shows at that moment. There are two important edge cases: if the token launches but the price crashes below the threshold by 4 PM the next day, it resolves No. And if Variational never launches a token before December 31, 2027, this also resolves No regardless of any announcements. No relevant recent news was available for this market. The kind of developments worth watching for would be any official announcement from Variational about a token launch date, updates about their fundraising or partnerships, or broader crypto market conditions that tend to affect how new tokens are priced at launch. The market prices this at 90 to 97 percent Yes depending on the threshold, so the crowd is strongly leaning toward a high valuation at launch. The main uncertainty is not really two balanced sides: it is whether something unexpected goes wrong. New token launches are volatile and unpredictable. A bad market environment on launch day, a delay past the 2027 deadline, a technical problem, or simply weaker-than-expected demand could all push the FDV below the threshold. The higher the threshold, the more room there is for a miss.

The odds right now

• $100M97%
• $200M+0.1 pts (1w)95%
• $300M-3.5 pts (1w)85%
• $500M-1.5 pts (1w)72%
• $800M+5.0 pts (1w)46%
• $1B+4.5 pts (1w)35%
• $2B+1.6 pts (1w)11%
• $3B-0.9 pts (1w)9%
• $4B-0.7 pts (1w)3%
• $5B+0.9 pts (1w)3%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves January 1, 2028

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Variational's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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