Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking whether the Trump administration will actually release previously secret government documents about UFOs or extraterrestrial life before a specific date. A Yes means real, new files become publicly available. A No means nothing new is released, or only an announcement is made without the actual documents following. The three dates shown (July 31, August 15, August 31) are separate sub-questions about timing, each asking if the release happens by that deadline. The market settles Yes if any genuinely new UFO or extraterrestrial-related files become publicly accessible before 11:59 PM ET on the chosen date. The files must come from the U.S. executive branch, including agencies like the Department of Defense. One important catch: a promise or announcement alone does not count. The documents must actually be released within the timeframe. Resolution relies mainly on official U.S. government sources, but widespread credible reporting would also be accepted as confirmation. None of the provided recent news headlines directly relate to UFO or UAP declassification. The headlines focus on U.S.-Iran tensions, tariffs, and budget matters. Those topics could indirectly affect government priorities and bandwidth, but there is no specific reporting here about UAP file releases. The kind of news that would matter most is any official announcement from the White House, Pentagon, or intelligence community about new UAP document releases. The main uncertainty is whether the administration will actually follow through and release documents, not just talk about it. There is a real gap between political interest in UFO transparency and the bureaucratic and national security hurdles that can delay or block actual releases. The market prices the August 31 deadline at 86%, meaning most participants expect it to happen eventually, but the July 31 deadline at only 11% shows real doubt about the timing. The biggest risk is announcements without action, which the rules explicitly say do not count.

The odds right now

• August 31+10.5 pts (1w)87%
• August 15-4.5 pts (1w)66%
• July 31-27.0 pts (1w)17%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration declassifies any files pertaining to extraterrestrial life and/or unexplained aerial phenomena which were not previously publicly available by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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