What will Trump say during the White House Correspondents Dinner?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether Trump will say specific words or phrases during his speech at the White House Correspondents Dinner on July 24, 2026. Each phrase is its own separate question: will he say 'Fake News' (the market says 83% chance yes), will he say 'Nasty' (54%), and will he mention 'Iran' at least three times (53%)? A Yes means he says that exact term during the dinner. A No means he doesn't, even if he says it everywhere else. A video of the dinner is the official proof. If Trump says the word or phrase during the event, that option resolves Yes. If he doesn't say it, or if he says it somewhere else but not at the dinner itself, it resolves No. There is one important edge case: if the event is cancelled or never broadcast by July 31, 2026, all the word markets resolve No, and a special 'No Qualifying Event' option resolves Yes instead. A few pieces of recent news are loosely relevant. The House passed a bill related to funding for an Iran war on July 23, which could give Trump reason to bring up Iran at the dinner. Trump also returned to election-related claims in Georgia that same day, suggesting his familiar talking points are active. These topics often show up in his public remarks, but what he says at a formal dinner is still its own unknown. The main challenge is that no one knows exactly what Trump will say in a speech that hasn't happened yet. 'Fake News' is priced at 83%, reflecting that it is one of his most repeated phrases, but even well-worn habits can be skipped on a given night. 'Nasty' and 'Iran 3+ times' sit near 50-50, which means the market genuinely sees those as coin-flip territory. The dinner format, the audience, and the mood of the moment can all shift what a speaker chooses to say.

The odds right now

• Fake News83%
• Nasty54%
• Iran 3+ times53%
• Melania53%
• Sleepy49%
• Movie Star41%
• Gulf of America / Gulf of Trump38%
• Shots fired / Shots will be fired34%
• Butler34%
• Drone33%
• Tough Cookie32%
• Central Casting32%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 24, 2026

Donald Trump is scheduled to participate in a White House Correspondents Dinner on July 24, 2026 (https://whca.press/news/annual-dinner/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his White House Correspondents Dinner on July 24, 2026. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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