WI-01 Democratic Primary Winner: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks who will win the Democratic Party's internal vote to choose their candidate for Wisconsin's 1st Congressional District in the 2026 U.S. midterm elections. A Yes for Mitchell Berman means he wins that party vote and becomes the official Democratic nominee. The same logic applies to the other candidates. This is not about who wins the November general election, only about who Democrats in WI-01 pick as their representative in that race. The market settles on whoever wins the Democratic primary election on August 11, 2026. The winner is confirmed using official Democratic Party sources. One important edge case: if for any reason no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, the market resolves as 'Other' instead. Also, if the nominee later steps aside before the general election, that does not change the result here. The primary outcome is what counts, full stop. None of the provided news headlines are relevant to this specific race. There are no recent reports about the WI-01 Democratic primary or its candidates in the given news. The kind of news that would matter here includes candidate announcements, local endorsements, polling from Wisconsin's 1st District, or any candidate dropping out before the August 11 primary. The market is heavily skewed toward Mitchell Berman at 88%, so this is not a close race in the eyes of current participants. The main remaining uncertainty is simply whether something unexpected happens before August 11, such as a candidate entering or exiting the race, a damaging story emerging, or a late surge of support for one of the other candidates. At this level of odds, the honest question is not who is ahead, but whether any surprise can change things before primary day.

The odds right now

• Mitchell Berman88%
• Lorenzo Santos6%
• Peter Burgelis4%
• Miguel Aranda1%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 11, 2026

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the WI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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