Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether Anthropic, the AI company behind Claude, will reach a certain size in dollar terms before the end of 2026. There are three separate thresholds: $1.25 trillion, $1.5 trillion, and $1.75 trillion. Each is its own Yes or No question. A 'Yes' means Anthropic's valuation, as tracked by a specific data service, touched or crossed that number at any point during the period. A 'No' means it never got there. The market settles based on a single data source: the NPM Price published by Nasdaq Private Market (NPM), a service that tracks private company valuations. If that price hits the threshold on any single trading day before December 31, 2026, it resolves Yes. One important edge case: if Anthropic goes public through an IPO, the market would then use actual stock prices instead. Another: if Anthropic is acquired and stops being independent, only valuations before the deal closes would count, not the acquisition price itself. No specific recent news was matched to this market. The kind of developments that would matter most here include new fundraising rounds that set a higher valuation, a major revenue announcement, an IPO filing, or any news about Anthropic's growth or setbacks that could shift how private markets price the company. The core challenge is that Anthropic is still private, so its valuation only updates when investors and data services reprice it, not continuously like a stock. A lot can change in AI between now and late 2026: competition, regulation, revenue growth, and general investor appetite for AI companies. The three thresholds tell you where the crowd sees the real uncertainty: the market prices $1.25T as very likely (91%), but $1.75T as roughly a coin toss (46%), meaning the upper range is genuinely contested.

The odds right now

• ↑$1.25T-0.5 pts (1w)92%
• ↑$1.5T-12.5 pts (1w)66%
• ↑$1.75T-12.5 pts (1w)46%
• ↑$2.0T-11.0 pts (1w)36%
• ↑$2.5T-1.5 pts (1w)17%
• ↓$800B-0.5 pts (1w)10%
• ↑$3.0T-1.5 pts (1w)10%
• ↓$700B+1.0 pts (1w)6%
• ↑$4.0T+0.6 pts (1w)5%
• ↓$600B5%
• ↑$5.0T+0.5 pts (1w)4%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves January 1, 2027

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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