Will Elon Musk tweet "Hyperliquid" by ___?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking a simple question: will Elon Musk type the word 'Hyperliquid' in a post on his X account before a specific date? Hyperliquid is a cryptocurrency trading platform that has grown popular in the crypto world. A Yes outcome means Musk wrote that word himself in a post. A No means he never did, or the deadline passed first. The market settles Yes the moment Musk's verified X account posts the word 'Hyperliquid' spelled correctly, in full, before 11:59 PM Eastern Time on the deadline shown in the market title. His own typed words count, including replies and quote posts, but reposts and quotes of others do not. Hashtags like #Hyperliquid are fine. Misspellings, symbols inserted mid-word, or posts from a hacked account do not count. There are three separate deadline versions priced independently: August 31, September 30, and December 31, 2026. The news items provided do not appear to be related to this market at all: they cover European culture, sailing events, and nutrition research. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. The kind of development that would matter is any public connection between Elon Musk and Hyperliquid, such as him commenting on crypto trading platforms, or Hyperliquid appearing in mainstream financial news that might catch his attention. The core difficulty is that Musk's posting behavior is genuinely unpredictable. He posts thousands of times a year on many topics, including crypto, but whether he ever mentions one specific platform is nearly impossible to forecast. The market prices the August deadline at 26% and the September deadline at 46%, suggesting participants see it as a real but uncertain possibility. The main unknowns are whether anything draws Musk's attention to Hyperliquid specifically, and when or if that happens.

The odds right now

• September 30, 2026+32.0 pts (1w)45%
• August 31, 2026+20.3 pts (1w)25%
• December 31, 2026-1.0 pts (1w)14%
• October 31, 202611%
• November 30, 2026-0.5 pts (1w)11%
• July 31, 2026+2.5 pts (1w)4%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves January 1, 2027

This market will resolve to "Yes" if https://x.com/elonmusk posts the listed term by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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