Will MrBeast hit ___ Billion views by July 31?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking how many total lifetime views the MrBeast YouTube channel will have accumulated by the end of July 2026. Three specific view-count targets are being tracked: 135 billion, 135.5 billion, and 136 billion total views. Think of it like a car's odometer: it counts every single view the channel has ever received across all its videos, and this market asks which milestone that running total will pass before the deadline. Each threshold resolves Yes if MrBeast's official YouTube channel shows a cumulative view count at or above that number by 11:59 PM ET on July 31, 2026. The check is done directly on the YouTube channel page. If the count hasn't reached a specific number by that moment, that threshold resolves No. There are no stated exceptions or edge cases beyond the deadline itself. No recent news relevant to this market was provided. The two headlines in the feed are about unrelated topics entirely. The kind of news that would actually matter here includes new MrBeast video releases, viral moments, or any unusual spikes or drops in channel activity that could push the view count faster or slower than its current pace. The main uncertainty is the pace of incoming views between now and July 31. The market already prices 135 billion at 74%, meaning it considers that threshold fairly likely but not certain. The harder question is how quickly views accumulate: a big viral video could push the count well past 135 billion and toward 136 billion, while a quiet period could leave it short. View counts on YouTube are also not always updated in real time, which adds a small measurement wrinkle.

The odds right now

• 134 billion+1.5 pts (1w)100%
• 134.5 billion+36.4 pts (1w)99%
• 135 billion-30.0 pts (1w)55%
• 135.5 billion-28.0 pts (1w)16%
• 136 billion-28.8 pts (1w)2%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the MrBeast YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast) hits the specified number of views by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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