What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by June 30?

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States agrees to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran refers to US acceptance of the enrichment of, or the right to enrich, any quantity of uranium by Iran for any future amount of time. Agreements that include limitations, restrictions, or specified terms (e.g., caps on enrichment level, monitoring requirements) will qualify, provided the United States accepts continued enrichment. The United States will be considered to have agreed to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran if: - Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that they have definitively agreed to accept the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran. - Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means. Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify. Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump and the US government and their official representatives; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.

Markets tracking what Iranian demands Donald Trump will agree to by 30 June 2026 show Oil Sanction Relief and Unfreeze Iranian Assets as the heaviest-backed outcomes, while Enrichment of Uranium and Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz attract considerably less volume. The market structure reflects ongoing US–Iran nuclear and economic negotiations, with resolution contingent on a formal, definitive agreement announced before the deadline.

Market structure

This is a multi-outcome market with four possible resolutions: Enrichment of Uranium, Oil Sanction Relief, Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz, and Unfreeze Iranian Assets. Volume is concentrated on two outcomes — Oil Sanction Relief and Unfreeze Iranian Assets — while the other two attract a small share of trading interest. Each outcome resolves independently to Yes or No based on whether a definitive US agreement on that specific demand is reached by 30 June 2026. The primary resolution source is official US government statements, supplemented by a consensus of credible reporting.

Background

US–Iran relations have been shaped for decades by disputes over Iran's nuclear programme, economic sanctions, and regional influence. The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) temporarily constrained Iranian enrichment activity in exchange for sanctions relief, but the United States withdrew from the agreement in 2018 under President Trump's first administration, reimposing sweeping sanctions. Subsequent negotiations under the Biden administration failed to produce a restored deal. By 2025, Iran had significantly advanced its uranium enrichment capacity, and indirect talks between Washington and Tehran had resumed, with both sides publicly signalling interest in a new framework. The four demands tracked by this market — enrichment rights, sanctions on oil exports, transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz, and the unfreezing of Iranian financial assets — represent the core points of leverage in those ongoing discussions.

Key factors

Whether any of these outcomes resolve Yes depends on several intersecting variables. The pace and format of US–Iran talks — whether direct or mediated through third parties such as Oman — will determine how quickly a formal agreement could be reached. Congressional attitudes toward any deal matter, particularly for sanctions relief, where legislative action may be required alongside executive authority. Iran's domestic political dynamics, including the influence of hardliners opposed to concessions, could constrain what Tehran's negotiators are authorised to accept in return. The enrichment question is particularly sensitive: any US acceptance of continued enrichment, even with restrictions, would represent a significant departure from prior non-proliferation positions and could face resistance from allied governments and domestic critics. Asset unfreezing and oil sanctions are more tractable through executive action alone, which may explain the heavier market concentration on those outcomes. Regional escalation events or a breakdown in talks could push all outcomes toward No before the deadline.

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