AZ-01 Republican Primary Margin of Victory: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking how big the winning gap will be in the Republican primary runoff for Arizona's 1st Congressional District, scheduled for August 4, 2026. A candidate named Feely appears to be the expected winner, and the question is not who wins but by how much. The three brackets are: a margin of 10 to 15 percentage points, 15 to 20 points, or 20 to 25 points. Think of it like asking: does the winner beat second place by a little, a medium amount, or a lot? This market settles based on the official vote count certified by Arizona, most likely published by the Arizona Secretary of State. The margin is calculated by subtracting the second-place candidate's vote share from the first-place candidate's vote share. If that gap lands exactly on a bracket boundary, the higher bracket wins. If the result is not officially confirmed by November 30, 2026, the market resolves to a catch-all category called 'Other.' A recount, if triggered, would keep the market open until it finishes. The recent news covers Andy Biggs winning the Republican primary for Arizona governor on July 22, 2026. That is a statewide race, not the AZ-01 congressional district primary this market covers. It shows Arizona Republican primaries are active right now, but the specific AZ-01 runoff result has not appeared in the provided headlines. The August 4 date is still ahead, so the relevant result to watch for is the official AZ-01 vote count after that date. The core challenge here is that primary margins can shift significantly based on turnout, late-deciding voters, and ground-game execution, all of which are hard to measure in advance. The market currently leans toward a 10 to 15 point margin at 64%, but the 15 to 20 point bracket is also priced meaningfully at 46%, which suggests real disagreement about whether the win will be comfortable or dominant. Without current polling specific to this race, estimating the exact gap between first and second place is genuinely difficult.

The odds right now

• Feely 10–15%+19.1 pts (1w)42%
• Feely 15–20%+27.5 pts (1w)40%
• Feely 20–25%-38.0 pts (1w)7%
• Chaplik 10%+-1.8 pts (1w)1%
• Chaplik 5–10%-20.1 pts (1w)0%
• Feely 25%+-22.0 pts (1w)0%
• Feely 5–10%-18.8 pts (1w)0%
• Feely <5%-9.7 pts (1w)0%
• Chaplik <5%-0.2 pts (1w)0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 4, 2026

The AZ-01 Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for August 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the AZ-01 Republican Primary election. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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