AZ-01 Republican Primary Winner: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking which Republican candidate will win the party's primary election for Arizona's 1st Congressional District, a U.S. House seat. A win for Jay Feely means he becomes the official Republican nominee for that seat in the November 2026 general election. A win for Joseph Chaplik means he gets that nomination instead. This is only about the Republican primary race, not the general election itself. The market settles on whoever wins the Republican primary vote on July 21, 2026, which is also when this market closes. The result is confirmed using official Republican Party sources, including the RNC website. One important edge case: if for some reason no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, the market resolves as 'Other.' Also, if the winner later drops out before the general election, the market still resolves to whoever won the primary. None of the recent news provided relates to this race. There are no headlines about Jay Feely, Joseph Chaplik, or the AZ-01 primary. If you want to follow this market, the most useful things to watch for would be local Arizona news about candidate endorsements, campaign activity, or any last-minute candidate entries or withdrawals before the July 21 vote. The market prices Feely at 89%, which is heavily one-sided, so this is not really a close race according to current market sentiment. The main genuine uncertainty is simply whether something unexpected happens before or on primary day, such as a late surge by Chaplik, a new candidate entering, low turnout shifting results, or an unforeseen event affecting either candidate's standing. Heavily favored candidates do occasionally lose primaries, but the market is clearly not treating this as an open contest.

The odds right now

• Jay Feely+3.0 pts (1w)91%
• Joseph Chaplik-3.3 pts (1w)9%
• Gina Swoboda0%
• Matt Gress0%
• Jason Duey0%
• Muchelle Ugenti-Rita0%
• Todd Graham0%
• Kari Lake0%
• Derrick Gallego0%
• Kaitlin Purrington0%
• Paul Reevs-0.1 pts (1w)0%
• Brandon Sowers0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 21, 2026

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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