Fed rate cut by...?

What you need to know

This market is asking: at which Federal Reserve meeting will interest rates finally be cut? The Fed sets a benchmark interest rate that influences borrowing costs across the whole economy — mortgages, car loans, business credit. Right now rates are being held steady, and this market is tracking which specific meeting — December 2025, October, or September — is when the Fed first lowers them. The three options shown (December at 21%, October at 17%, September at 13%) each represent a different meeting date where that first cut could happen. Each option resolves Yes if the Fed's upper target rate is lowered at or before that specific meeting date. Crucially, the window starts December 16, 2025 — so any cut announced from that date through the relevant meeting counts. An emergency cut between scheduled meetings would also qualify. The Fed's official website is the primary source. If a scheduled meeting simply doesn't happen by its deadline date, that option resolves No. The market ends June 17, 2026, covering meetings through mid-2026. None of the provided news headlines relate to US Federal Reserve policy, interest rates, or economic conditions that would affect this market. The kind of news that would matter here includes US inflation data, employment reports, official Fed statements about the rate outlook, or any signs of economic stress that might push the Fed toward cutting sooner — or away from it. The Fed's timing depends on data that hasn't happened yet — future inflation readings, jobs numbers, and economic conditions over the coming months. The market prices September at 13%, October at 17%, and December at 21%, suggesting no single meeting is seen as clearly dominant. Fed officials have signaled caution, but unexpected economic weakness or a shock could accelerate cuts. The spread across these options reflects genuine uncertainty about timing, not just outcome — reasonable people disagree because the underlying data is still unfolding.

The odds right now

• December Meeting-7.0 pts (1w)21%
• October Meeting-4.0 pts (1w)16%
• September Meeting-1.5 pts (1w)11%
• July Meeting-3.0 pts (1w)2%
• June Meeting-0.6 pts (1w)0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 17, 2026

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for December 2026, currently scheduled for December 8-9. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no December meeting takes place by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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