FL-02 Republican Primary Winner: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking which Republican candidate will win the party's nomination to run for Florida's 2nd Congressional District seat in the U.S. House in 2026. A win for any named candidate means they got the most votes in the Republican primary on August 18, 2026. The winner then becomes the official Republican on the November general election ballot. This is not about who wins the seat in November, only about who wins the Republican internal vote first. The market settles based on who officially wins the Republican primary election on August 18, 2026. Whoever gets the most votes in that primary is the nominee, and that is the answer. The result will be confirmed using official Republican Party sources. One important detail: if the nominee later drops out or is replaced before the November general election, the market does not change. It locks in whoever won on primary day. If no nominee is confirmed by November 3, 2026, the market resolves as 'Other'. None of the recent news provided appears to relate to this race. There are no headlines about Keith Gross, Evan Power, Austin Rogers, or Florida's 2nd Congressional District. To follow this race meaningfully, the most useful things to watch for would be local Florida news covering candidate fundraising totals, endorsements from Florida Republican officials, and any polling conducted in the district before August 2026. This race has more than a year to go before the primary, which means a lot can change. The market currently puts Keith Gross in front at 45%, but that still leaves 55% spread across other candidates, meaning no one is a clear favorite. Candidates can enter or exit the race, endorsements can shift momentum, and local events can reshape the contest. With no recent polling or news to go on, the current odds reflect early-stage sentiment rather than solid evidence, so uncertainty here is genuinely high.

The odds right now

• Keith Gross45%
• Evan Power26%
• Austin Rogers14%
• Lee Jones10%
• Jim Norton5%
• Luke Murphy4%
• Audie Rowell3%
• Nick Lewis1%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 18, 2026

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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