Florida Governor Republican Primary Second Place: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking who will finish in second place, not first, in Florida's 2026 Republican primary for governor. A 'Yes' on a candidate means you think they come in second among all Republican hopefuls on primary day. The winner of the primary is a separate question entirely. Second place here has no official political power, but it tells you who the runner-up in the race was. The market settles based on official Florida election results from the August 18, 2026 Republican primary. Whichever named candidate receives the second-highest vote total wins this market. If two candidates tie on votes, the one whose last name comes first alphabetically is ranked higher. If official results are not confirmed by December 31, 2026, the market resolves to 'Other', meaning none of the named candidates. None of the provided news headlines relate to this market. There is no recent reporting here about the Florida governor's race or any of the named candidates. The kind of news that would matter includes candidate announcements, polling data from Florida, endorsements from major Republican figures, or candidates entering or dropping out of the race. The primary is still over a year away, which makes this genuinely hard to call. The field of candidates could change significantly before August 2026. Jay Collins holds a strong 70% implied probability from the market, suggesting participants lean heavily toward him for second place, but that still leaves real room for Fishback or others. Unknown candidates could also enter the race, reshuffling everything. With no current polling data provided, the main uncertainty is simply how much can shift over 12-plus months.

The odds right now

• Jay Collins+29.0 pts (1w)74%
• James Fishback-27.0 pts (1w)14%
• Caneste Succe-18.3 pts (1w)4%
• Daniel Nokovich-21.3 pts (1w)4%
• James Walker Shaw-21.0 pts (1w)4%
• Arthur Joseph McCaffrey-20.8 pts (1w)4%
• Paul Renner-38.5 pts (1w)4%
• Rachel Rodriguez-18.4 pts (1w)3%
• Bobby Williams-19.4 pts (1w)3%
• Jim Holcomb-20.3 pts (1w)2%
• Byron Donalds-31.5 pts (1w)2%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 18, 2026

This market will resolve according to the individual who places second in the Republican Primary for Governor of Florida, scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.