Hawaii Governor Republican Primary Winner: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking which Republican candidate will win the party's primary election for Hawaii Governor in August 2026. A win for Gary Cordery means he becomes the Republican nominee for governor. A win for Ken Fujiyama or Bu Laia Hill means one of them carries the Republican banner into the general election instead. This is only the primary, the internal Republican contest, not the final governor's race itself. The market settles based on whoever wins the most votes in the Hawaii Republican gubernatorial primary on August 8, 2026, including any runoff if one is required. The official Hawaii Republican Party announcement is the deciding source, though widespread credible news coverage can also confirm the result. One important edge case: if the primary is cancelled or replaced by a different selection method, the market still resolves based on whoever the Republicans ultimately pick. If no primary takes place at all for unrelated reasons, the market resolves as 'Other.' None of the recent news provided is relevant to this race. There are no headlines about Gary Cordery, Ken Fujiyama, Bu Laia Hill, or the Hawaii Republican primary. To follow this market, the most useful things to watch for would be local Hawaii news about candidate fundraising, endorsements, polling, or any changes to who is running. The main honest caveat here is that Gary Cordery is priced at 81%, so the market is not treating this as a close race. The real uncertainty is not whether two equal sides exist, it is simply whether something unexpected changes the picture before August 2026, such as a candidate dropping out, a late entrant joining, or a shift in local Republican Party dynamics. Hawaii is a heavily Democratic state, so Republican primaries draw limited attention and can be harder to poll or track reliably.

The odds right now

• Gary Cordery+38.0 pts (1w)81%
• Ken Fujiyama-31.5 pts (1w)11%
• Bu Laia Hill-37.1 pts (1w)4%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 8, 2026

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Hawaii, scheduled to take place on August 8, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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