Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 20?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 20, 2026, how hot will it get in San Francisco? Specifically, it asks which temperature range, like 72, 73°F or 70, 71°F, will match the single highest temperature reading of that day, measured at SFO airport. A 'Yes' for any given range means the thermometer peaked somewhere inside those two degrees. It's essentially a group guess about a single afternoon high, broken into narrow two-degree bands. After July 20, 2026 ends, whoever runs this market checks the Weather Underground website for SFO airport's recorded daily high temperature. Whatever whole-degree number that site shows, say, 72°F, determines the winning range. The number must be in Fahrenheit and rounded to a whole degree, exactly as Weather Underground displays it. The check happens once the first data point for July 21 appears, locking in the final reading from July 20. No recent news relevant to San Francisco temperatures or weather was provided. What would actually matter here is a detailed weather forecast for the Bay Area in mid-to-late July 2026, particularly whether any marine layer, heat dome, or unusual wind pattern is expected around that date. San Francisco's summer weather is genuinely tricky to pin down, even a year out. The city's famous fog and cool marine air keep July highs in a narrow band, often 60s to low 70s, but occasional inland heat waves push temperatures much higher. A single day's reading is sensitive to wind direction, fog timing, and regional pressure systems that no one can reliably forecast a year in advance. That tight spread across the top three ranges, 44%, 22%, 18%, reflects real uncertainty across just a few degrees.

The odds right now

• 70-71°F34%
• 72-73°F27%
• 68-69°F18%
• 74-75°F11%
• 66-67°F7%
• 76-77°F4%
• 64-65°F2%
• 78-79°F1%
• 63°F or below0%
• 82°F or higher0%
• 80-81°F0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 20, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

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